Live track record
15 GROUP XRP · Kalshi XRP 15-minute markets
Every call is locked at 10:00 and 6:00 before close, saved permanently and graded against Kalshi's official settlement. Nothing is edited after the fact. Calls too close to call are marked "skip" and not graded, and both records are shown below. Only settled windows appear here.
121 settled windows tracked live since Nov 3, 08:15 PM · updated Nov 5, 07:26 PM
Final call · locked 6:00 before close
91%
right
69W / 7L76 graded calls
Every lock, including coin flips: 93–25 (79%)
Coin flips skipped: 42 (picks like it right under 70% historically)
Value bets flagged: 19/27 won, +$4.35 per 1-contract bet after fees (+30.4% return)
Backtest on ~1,700 past windows: 89% right, calling 75% of windows
Early call · locked 10:00 before close
81%
right
59W / 14L73 graded calls
Every lock, including coin flips: 84–33 (72%)
Coin flips skipped: 44 (picks like it right under 70% historically)
Value bets flagged: 11/15 won, +$1.00 per 1-contract bet after fees (+10.2% return)
Backtest on ~1,700 past windows: 80% right, calling 67% of windows
Recent settled windows
| Window close | Target → settled | Result | 10:00 call | 6:00 call | 6:00 value bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 07:15 PM | 1.2331 → 1.2318 | DOWN | DOWN 78% | DOWN 93% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 07:00 PM | 1.2329 → 1.2331 | UP | skip | UP 78% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 06:45 PM | 1.2329 → 1.2329 | UP | DOWN 72% | skip | UP @ 36¢ +$0.62 |
| Nov 5, 06:30 PM | 1.2326 → 1.2329 | UP | DOWN 74% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 06:15 PM | 1.2326 → 1.2326 | UP | DOWN 76% | DOWN 68% | UP @ 16¢ +$0.83 |
| Nov 5, 06:00 PM | 1.2372 → 1.2326 | DOWN | skip | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 05:45 PM | 1.2370 → 1.2372 | UP | UP 81% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 05:30 PM | 1.2396 → 1.2370 | DOWN | skip | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 05:15 PM | 1.2423 → 1.2396 | DOWN | DOWN 86% | DOWN 87% | UP @ 9¢ −$0.10 |
| Nov 5, 05:00 PM | 1.2470 → 1.2423 | DOWN | skip | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 04:45 PM | 1.2542 → 1.2470 | DOWN | DOWN 52% | DOWN 88% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 04:30 PM | 1.2515 → 1.2542 | UP | UP 61% | UP 92% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 04:15 PM | 1.2441 → 1.2515 | UP | DOWN 69% | skip | UP @ 51¢ +$0.47 |
| Nov 5, 04:00 PM | 1.2566 → 1.2441 | DOWN | DOWN 87% | DOWN 99% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 03:45 PM | 1.2544 → 1.2566 | UP | UP 80% | UP 86% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 03:30 PM | 1.2522 → 1.2544 | UP | UP 76% | UP 59% | DOWN @ 22¢ −$0.23 |
| Nov 5, 03:15 PM | 1.2796 → 1.2522 | DOWN | DOWN 79% | DOWN 97% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 03:00 PM | 1.2876 → 1.2796 | DOWN | skip | DOWN 75% | DOWN @ 80¢ +$0.19 |
| Nov 5, 02:45 PM | 1.3041 → 1.2876 | DOWN | DOWN 91% | DOWN 99% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 02:30 PM | 1.3013 → 1.3041 | UP | UP 61% | skip | DOWN @ 31¢ −$0.33 |
| Nov 5, 02:15 PM | 1.3058 → 1.3013 | DOWN | skip | DOWN 89% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 02:00 PM | 1.3056 → 1.3058 | UP | UP 82% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 01:45 PM | 1.3072 → 1.3056 | DOWN | DOWN 57% | DOWN 93% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 01:30 PM | 1.3081 → 1.3072 | DOWN | skip | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 01:15 PM | 1.3036 → 1.3081 | UP | UP 97% | UP 88% | UP @ 79¢ +$0.20 |
| Nov 5, 01:00 PM | 1.3029 → 1.3036 | UP | UP 69% | skip | UP @ 27¢ +$0.72 |
| Nov 5, 12:45 PM | 1.3096 → 1.3029 | DOWN | DOWN 82% | DOWN 98% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 12:30 PM | 1.3140 → 1.3096 | DOWN | skip | DOWN 95% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 12:15 PM | 1.3177 → 1.3140 | DOWN | DOWN 85% | DOWN 98% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 12:00 PM | 1.3195 → 1.3177 | DOWN | DOWN 57% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 11:45 AM | 1.3162 → 1.3195 | UP | UP 96% | UP 95% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 11:30 AM | 1.3185 → 1.3162 | DOWN | skip | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 11:15 AM | 1.3172 → 1.3185 | UP | UP 59% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 11:00 AM | 1.3185 → 1.3172 | DOWN | DOWN 71% | DOWN 82% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 10:45 AM | 1.3197 → 1.3185 | DOWN | DOWN 55% | DOWN 82% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 10:30 AM | 1.3168 → 1.3197 | UP | UP 75% | UP 98% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 10:15 AM | 1.3194 → 1.3168 | DOWN | DOWN 71% | DOWN 69% | DOWN @ 76¢ +$0.23 |
| Nov 5, 08:00 AM | 1.3110 → 1.3126 | UP | UP 80% | UP 90% | no bet |
| Nov 5, 07:45 AM | 1.3108 → 1.3110 | UP | DOWN 81% | skip | no bet |
| Nov 5, 07:30 AM | 1.3108 → 1.3108 | UP | skip | skip | UP @ 28¢ +$0.71 |
Analytical software and mathematical edge calculator for prediction markets. Not an investment adviser, automated execution broker, or financial advice service. Past results, live or backtested, don't guarantee future results. Bet results assume 1 contract at the Kalshi ask shown at lock time, after Kalshi fees. Terms